# Scottish Independence: Will There Be Another Referendum and Would Scotland Vote Yes?

> The SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 but still demands indyref2 — here's whether Scotland will get another independence vote and what the polls say.

*Section: Politics — By Sarah Mitchell — Published July 27, 2026 — 9 min read*

Canonical URL: https://dailyjunction.co.uk/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-prospects-2026
Tags: Scottish independence, SNP, Scotland, referendum, devolution, UK politics, Nicola Sturgeon, independence referendum

## Key takeaways

- SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 election (down from 48 to 9 MPs) ending their claim to a mandate for indyref2, while Labour won 37 Scottish seats
- Support for independence has been stuck at 45-48% since 2014 referendum (Yes 45%, No 55%), with no sustained majority for independence in 10 years
- UK government has legal power to block indyref2 (Supreme Court ruled 2022) and Labour has ruled out granting one for entire Parliament (until 2029 minimum)
- Scotland's fiscal deficit is 9% of GDP (£36 billion, 2023-24) funded by UK transfers, making independence economically painful without major tax rises or spending cuts
- SNP faces crisis: Nicola Sturgeon arrested (fraud investigation), membership collapsed 50% (103,000 in 2023), and voters prioritise NHS/cost of living over independence

On **18 September 2014**, Scotland held an independence referendum. The result was **No 55%, Yes 45%** — Scotland voted to remain in the United Kingdom. The SNP (Scottish National Party) accepted the result but vowed to hold another referendum when circumstances changed. Ten years later, circumstances have changed (Brexit, COVID, cost of living crisis), but support for independence remains stuck at **45-48%** — exactly where it was in 2014.

The SNP lost **39 seats** in the 2024 general election (down from 48 to 9 MPs), ending their claim to a mandate for **indyref2** (a second independence referendum). Labour won **37 Scottish seats** and has ruled out granting a referendum for the entire Parliament (until 2029 minimum). The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Scotland **cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent**, giving the UK government legal power to block indyref2 indefinitely.

Yet the SNP still demands another referendum, arguing that Brexit (which Scotland voted against 62-38%) and Westminster's refusal to grant indyref2 justify independence. Here's whether Scotland will get another independence vote, what the polls say, and what independence would actually mean for Scotland's economy.

## What Happened in 2014?

The **2014 Scottish independence referendum** was the result of decades of SNP campaigning and a deal between the UK government (David Cameron, Conservative) and Scottish government (Alex Salmond, SNP).

### The result

- **No (remain in UK)**: 55.3% (2,001,926 votes)
- **Yes (independence)**: 44.7% (1,617,989 votes)
- **Turnout**: 84.6% (highest in UK electoral history)

### The promise

Both sides agreed the referendum was **"once in a generation"** and the result would be respected. The SNP accepted defeat but vowed to hold another referendum if circumstances changed.

### What changed since 2014?

1. **Brexit** (2016): Scotland voted 62% Remain, but the UK voted 52% Leave. Scotland was "dragged out of the EU against its will" (SNP argument)

2. **SNP dominance** (2015-2019): SNP won 56 of 59 Scottish seats in 2015, 35 in 2017, 48 in 2019 — a "mandate for indyref2" (SNP argument)

3. **COVID-19** (2020-2022): Nicola Sturgeon's handling of COVID boosted SNP popularity and support for independence (briefly hit 54% in 2020)

4. **Supreme Court ruling** (2022): UK Supreme Court ruled Scotland cannot hold indyref2 without Westminster consent, blocking SNP's plan for a unilateral referendum

5. **SNP crisis** (2023-2024): Nicola Sturgeon resigned (February 2023), arrested (April 2023, fraud investigation), SNP membership collapsed 50% (from 103,000 to 50,000), SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 election

## The 2024 Election: SNP Collapse

The **2024 general election** was a disaster for the SNP:

| Party | Seats 2019 | Seats 2024 | Change |
|-------|------------|------------|--------|
| **SNP** | 48 | 9 | -39 |
| **Labour** | 1 | 37 | +36 |
| **Conservative** | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| **Lib Dem** | 4 | 6 | +2 |

### Why did SNP collapse?

1. **Nicola Sturgeon crisis**: Sturgeon resigned (February 2023) amid scandal (gender recognition reform, ferry contracts, party finances). She was arrested in April 2023 as part of a fraud investigation into SNP finances (£600,000 in donations allegedly misused). The investigation is ongoing, but the damage to SNP's reputation is severe.

2. **Membership collapse**: SNP membership fell from **103,000 (2021)** to **50,000 (2023)** — a 50% drop in two years.

3. **Voter priorities**: Voters prioritised **NHS, cost of living, and public services** over independence. SNP's record on these issues (NHS waiting times, drug deaths, education standards) is poor.

4. **Tactical voting**: Labour and Lib Dem voters voted tactically to "stop the SNP" in marginal seats.

5. **Independence fatigue**: After 10 years of SNP demanding indyref2, voters are tired of the issue.

### The result

SNP lost its claim to a **mandate for indyref2**. With just 9 MPs (down from 48), the SNP can no longer argue it speaks for Scotland.

## Will There Be Another Referendum?

**Not before 2029 at the earliest.**

### Legal position

The UK Supreme Court ruled in **November 2022** that the Scottish Parliament **cannot legislate for an independence referendum** without the consent of the UK Parliament (Westminster).

**Why?** The UK constitution reserves "the Union" to Westminster. Independence affects the entire UK, not just Scotland, so Westminster must consent.

**Result**: Scotland cannot hold a **unilateral referendum** (without Westminster consent). The SNP's plan for a "consultative referendum" (non-binding vote) was blocked.

### Political position

Labour won the 2024 election and has **ruled out granting indyref2** for the entire Parliament (until 2029 minimum). Keir Starmer has said:

- "Now is not the time for another divisive referendum"
- "Scotland voted No in 2014, and that should be respected"
- "Labour will focus on NHS, cost of living, and public services — not constitutional division"

Labour has **zero incentive** to grant indyref2:

- **SNP is weak** (9 MPs, membership collapsed, Sturgeon arrested)
- **Polls show no majority for independence** (45-48% Yes, 52-55% No)
- **Granting indyref2 would risk losing Scotland** (even a 45% chance of Yes is too high)
- **Labour's Scottish MPs would oppose it** (37 Labour MPs elected in Scotland, all oppose indyref2)

### The 2026 Scottish Parliament election

The next **Scottish Parliament election** is in **May 2026**. If SNP wins a majority (or pro-independence majority with Greens), they will demand indyref2.

**Will Labour grant it?** No. Labour will argue:

- "SNP lost 39 seats in 2024, showing no mandate for indyref2"
- "Polls show no majority for independence"
- "Scotland voted No in 2014, and that should be respected for a generation"

Even if SNP wins in 2026, Labour will refuse indyref2 until at least 2029 (next UK general election).

### When could indyref2 happen?

**Scenario 1: Labour grants indyref2 in 2030s** (if SNP wins multiple Scottish elections and polls show sustained majority for independence)

**Scenario 2: Conservative government grants indyref2** (if Conservatives win 2029 UK election and decide to "call SNP's bluff" — unlikely)

**Scenario 3: Never** (if support for independence remains below 50%, no UK government will grant indyref2)

**Most likely**: Indyref2 in **2030s** at the earliest, if ever.

## What Do the Polls Say?

Support for independence has been **stuck at 45-48%** since 2014:

| Poll | Yes | No | Undecided |
|------|-----|-----|-----------|
| **2014 referendum** | 45% | 55% | - |
| **2020 (COVID peak)** | 54% | 46% | - |
| **2024 (average)** | 47% | 53% | - |

### Key findings

1. **No sustained majority for independence**: Support for Yes briefly hit 54% in 2020 (during COVID, when Sturgeon's popularity peaked), but has since fallen back to 45-48%.

2. **Brexit has not shifted opinion**: Despite SNP's argument that Brexit justifies indyref2, support for independence has not increased since 2016.

3. **Age divide**: Under-45s support independence (55-60% Yes), over-45s oppose it (60-65% No). As older voters die and younger voters age, support for independence may rise — but this is a **generational shift** (decades, not years).

4. **Economic concerns**: Polls show voters' main concern about independence is **the economy** (currency, deficit, trade with England). The SNP has not answered these questions convincingly.

## What Would Independence Mean?

### 1. The economy

Scotland's economy is **integrated with the UK**:

- **63% of Scottish exports** go to the rest of the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland)
- **Scotland's fiscal deficit** is **9% of GDP** (£36 billion, 2023-24), funded by UK transfers (Barnett formula)
- **Scotland receives £2,000 more per person** in public spending than the UK average (funded by English taxpayers)

**Independence would mean**:

- **End of UK transfers**: Scotland would need to raise taxes or cut spending by **£36 billion** (20% of budget)
- **Hard border with England**: If Scotland rejoins the EU (SNP policy), there would be customs checks and tariffs on trade with England (63% of Scottish exports)
- **Currency crisis**: Scotland would need its own currency (or use pound informally, losing monetary policy control). A new currency would likely depreciate, causing inflation.
- **Debt**: Scotland would inherit a share of UK national debt (£2.7 trillion), adding **£150-200 billion** to Scotland's debt

**SNP's response**: Scotland could thrive like **Ireland or Denmark** (small, independent, EU members). But critics argue Scotland lacks the oil wealth it had in 2014 (North Sea oil production has fallen 50% since 2014) and would face a **decade of austerity**.

### 2. EU membership

The SNP wants Scotland to **rejoin the EU** after independence. But:

- **Scotland would need to apply** (not automatic)
- **All 27 EU members must approve** (Spain may veto to discourage Catalan independence)
- **Scotland would need to meet EU criteria**: deficit below 3% of GDP (Scotland's is 9%), debt below 60% of GDP (Scotland's would be 80-100%)
- **Scotland would need to adopt the euro** (no opt-out like the UK had)
- **Hard border with England**: EU membership would require customs checks and tariffs on trade with England (Scotland's largest trading partner)

**Timeline**: 5-10 years minimum (same as other EU applicants).

### 3. Defence and security

Scotland would need to:

- **Create its own military** (Scotland has no army, navy, or air force — it relies on UK armed forces)
- **Negotiate share of UK military assets** (ships, aircraft, bases)
- **Apply to join NATO** (not automatic, requires unanimous approval from 32 members)
- **Remove Trident nuclear submarines** from Faslane (SNP policy) — the UK would need to relocate them to England (cost: £20-30 billion)

### 4. Pensions and benefits

Scotland would need to:

- **Take over UK state pensions** for Scottish residents (cost: £10 billion per year)
- **Create its own benefits system** (Universal Credit, disability benefits, child benefit)
- **Negotiate share of UK assets and liabilities** (e.g., who pays pensions for Scots who worked in England?)

## Public Opinion: What Do Scots Want?

### Priorities

Polls show Scots' top priorities are:

1. **NHS** (waiting times, staffing, funding)
2. **Cost of living** (inflation, energy bills, wages)
3. **Public services** (education, transport, housing)
4. **Independence** (ranks 4th-5th)

Independence is important to **SNP voters**, but most Scots prioritise **bread-and-butter issues** over constitutional change.

### Trust

Polls show:

- **Trust in UK government**: 25% (low)
- **Trust in Scottish government**: 35% (higher than UK, but falling)
- **Trust in SNP to deliver independence**: 40% (falling after Sturgeon crisis)

The SNP's crisis (Sturgeon arrested, membership collapsed, poor record on NHS/education) has damaged trust in the party and the independence cause.

## The Bottom Line

There will not be another Scottish independence referendum before 2029 at the earliest. Labour won the 2024 election and has ruled out granting indyref2 for the entire Parliament. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Scotland cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent, giving the UK government legal power to block indyref2 indefinitely. The SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 (down from 48 to 9 MPs), ending their claim to a mandate for indyref2.

Support for independence has been stuck at 45-48% since 2014, with no sustained majority for Yes in 10 years. Scotland's fiscal deficit (9% of GDP, £36 billion) makes independence economically painful, requiring tax rises or spending cuts. Brexit has made independence harder (Scotland would need to rejoin EU, creating a hard border with England). And the SNP's crisis (Sturgeon arrested, membership collapsed) has damaged the independence cause.

Even if SNP wins the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, Labour will refuse to grant indyref2. Expect indyref2 in the 2030s at the earliest, if ever — and if it happens, polls suggest Scotland would vote No again, killing independence for a generation. The 2014 referendum was supposed to settle the issue "once in a generation" — and despite Brexit, COVID, and a decade of SNP campaigning, it has.

## Frequently asked questions

### Will there be another Scottish independence referendum?

Not before 2029 at the earliest. Labour won the 2024 election and has ruled out granting indyref2 for the entire Parliament (until 2029). The UK government has legal power to block a referendum (Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Scotland cannot hold one without Westminster consent), and Labour has zero incentive to grant one while the SNP is weak and polls show no majority for independence. Even if SNP wins the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, Labour will refuse. Expect indyref2 in the 2030s at the earliest, if ever.

### Would Scotland vote for independence if there was a referendum?

Probably not, based on current polling. Support for independence has been stuck at 45-48% since 2014 (Yes 45%, No 55%), with no sustained majority for Yes in 10 years. Scotland's fiscal deficit (9% of GDP, £36 billion) makes independence economically painful, requiring tax rises or spending cuts. Brexit has made independence harder (Scotland would need to rejoin EU, creating a hard border with England). And SNP's crisis (Sturgeon arrested, membership collapsed) has damaged the independence cause. A 2026 referendum would likely produce another No vote, killing independence for a generation.

### What would independence mean for Scotland's economy?

Short-term pain, long-term uncertainty. Scotland's fiscal deficit is 9% of GDP (£36 billion, 2023-24), funded by UK transfers (Barnett formula). Independence would end these transfers, requiring Scotland to raise taxes or cut spending by £36 billion (20% of budget). Scotland would need its own currency (or use pound informally, losing monetary policy control), its own central bank, and to negotiate EU membership (requiring hard border with England, Scotland's largest trading partner). Long-term, independence supporters argue Scotland could thrive like Ireland or Denmark, but critics say Scotland lacks the oil wealth it had in 2014 and would face a decade of austerity.

## Sources

- [House of Commons Library: Scottish Independence Referendum](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8419/)
- [UK Supreme Court: Scottish Independence Referendum Ruling](https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0098.html)
- [Scottish Government: Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2023-24](https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2023-24/)
- [What Scotland Thinks: Independence Polling](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-event-of-a-scottish-independence-referendum/)

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